Abstract The overall fertility will of Chinese people is lower. The number of super-children with more than three children is less than one million each year, accounting for only 5% or less of the annual birth population. This set of data has caused widespread concern among demographers. A number of demographers and scholars told the "First Financial Daily" that the comprehensive two-child policy is in the middle...
The overall fertility will of the Chinese people is lower. The number of super-children with more than three children is less than one million per year, accounting for only 5% or less of the annual birth population. This set of data has caused widespread concern among demographers.
A number of demographers told the China Business News that the impact of the comprehensive two-child policy on the population size and structure of China may be lower than expected. China’s negative population growth is likely to arrive in advance around 2023.
Birth population growth is lower than expected
According to the data obtained by the reporters of the “First Financial Daily”, the current population of more than three children accounts for about 5% of the annual birth population. According to the calculation of the birth population of 16.55 million in 2015, the super-population population of three or more children is only over 800,000.
This set of data shows that the overall fertility will of the Chinese people is indeed relatively low. Previously, according to the survey by the National Health and Family Planning Commission, the current fertility willingness of urban and rural people in the country was 1.93 children. The officials of the Health Planning Commission also said on many occasions that after the comprehensive two-child policy, the majority of the people's fertility will be satisfied.
The comprehensive two-child policy has been implemented since January 1, 2016. According to the forecast of the Health Planning Commission, after the implementation of the comprehensive two-child policy, the average number of new births per year may reach 3 million, and by 2050, about 30 million laborers will be added, which will slow down the aging process to a certain extent. Since 2030, the Chinese population will enter a period of negative growth.
From an economic point of view, the implementation of a comprehensive two-child will directly drive consumer demand in housing, education, health, housekeeping and daily necessities, stimulate the expansion of investment in related fields and increase employment. According to official estimates, the new population will increase the potential growth rate of the economy by about 0.5 percentage points after entering the working age.
However, according to the calculations of different population scholars, the impact of the comprehensive two-child release on the population may be lower than expected. Demographer Yao Meixiong found that by 2050, it will not reach the level of 30 million labor force. As the number of deaths increases year by year, by 2023, the annual death toll will exceed the number of births, and the Chinese population will enter negative growth, seven years ahead of the official forecast.
Population scholar Huang Wenzheng estimates that after a full two-child, the birth population will reach a peak in 2017, with a peak estimated at between 17.5 and 20 million (only between $15.5 million and $3.45 million in 2015). Then quickly began to fall sharply from 2018. The average annual birth population during the 13th Five-Year Plan period is expected to be between 16 million and 18.5 million.
Gu Baochang, a professor at the Research Center for Population and Development at Renmin University of China, said that considering the target population of 90 million full-time children in the country, more than 50% of women of childbearing age over 40 years old; plus the current low overall willingness of the people, comprehensive two The number of births that can be increased by the child policy will be lower than expected.
Gu Baochang conducted research in several provinces and cities across the country after the implementation of the separate two-child policy, and found that the local response was relatively dull. There are a number of policy-compliant couples who give up their second child because of concerns about parenting costs, affecting women's employment, and no one helping to look after children.
"My concern is that, like the implementation of the two-child policy alone, the policy of fully liberalizing the two-child policy may be met again. If this is the case, then China's fertility level will continue to decline in the future." Gu Baochang Say.
The trend of minority children is difficult to change
In the beginning of November 2015, General Secretary Xi Jinping emphasized in the "Notes on the Formulation of the "13th Five-Year Plan" Proposal" that at present, China's population structure shows obvious characteristics of younger and younger children, and the fertility willingness of the age-appropriate population is significantly reduced. The total fertility rate of women is significantly lower than that. Replacement level. Less births and eugenics have become the mainstream of social birth concepts.
This is the first time that Chinese leaders have clearly explained the new normal of the young and old population. According to the demographic criteria, a population aged 0-14 years in a society accounts for 15%-18% of the population, which is “seriously declining” and less than 15% is “super-small child”. The previous census showed that the proportion of children aged 0-14 years in China showed a surprisingly sharp decline: 40.7% in 1964, 33.6% in 1982, 27.7% in 1990, and 22.9% in 2000. The year has dropped to 16.6%. It is worth noting that this trend of reduction continues.
Liang Jianzhang, a demographer, believes that China's population is accelerating aging. This aging is not so much about the elderly, but rather because there are too few young people. And a young country with too few young people will greatly curb its ability to innovate, which in turn will affect the sustainable development of its economy.
According to statistics, in 2015, China's working-age population declined for four consecutive years, and for the first time in more than 30 years, there has been a decline in the floating population. Li Xunlei, chief economist of Haitong Securities (12.140, 0.00, 0.00%), said that China's GDP growth rate in 2015 hit a 25-year low, which has a lot to do with the decline of the floating population. The decline in the working-age population is hampering economic growth from both supply and demand.
Yao Meixiong believes that the current downward pressure on the Chinese economy is large, and the root cause is that the population has entered a new normal. As a countermeasure, the comprehensive two-child policy will increase the birth population to a certain extent, increase the supply of future labor, and alleviate the pressure of future pension.
He also said that the premise of the comprehensive two-child policy to achieve these effects is that a certain number of target groups must have given birth to two children.
Let people who are willing to have two children dare to live
Ms. Zhang, who is preparing for pregnancy in Beijing, told the “First Financial Daily” that she is 40 years old and her son is 13 years old. She has been eager to have another child for many years, but she has never dared to be a teacher at a key school in Beijing. . Now that the policy has been let go, although she is pregnant, she has been very entangled in her heart.
"Now there is a radish in the school. I am really worried about the position of my child after I came back. Also, at my age, it’s a bit of a trouble to think about pregnancy, check-up, child-rearing, and raising children. Fight," Ms. Zhang said.
Many women who are pregnant with two children have similar concerns. Yao Meixiong believes that the government should adopt various effective incentive measures as soon as possible to dispel the concerns of the masses and let those who are willing to have two children really dare to live.
Yao Meixiong suggested that the maternity leave should be extended to six months first, which can alleviate the pressure of re-fertility to a certain extent. However, from the current situation in which the provinces are revising the local "Population and Family Planning Regulations", no province has been able to achieve six months of maternity leave, and the length of general maternity leave is more than three to four months.
In addition to maternity leave, tax cuts and reduced spending on education are also one of the measures to encourage fertility. According to media reports, at the just-concluded Shanghai two sessions, the Shanghai Municipal Committee of the Taiwan Union submitted a proposal to reduce the income tax for the two-child family. At the same time, the kindergarten was included in the compulsory education category, and the child-rearing couple was encouraged to have two children by reducing the cost of parenting.
Gu Baochang suggested that in order to prevent the Chinese population from falling into a bigger crisis in the future, while encouraging the birth of two children according to the policy, the birth restriction should be further liberalized and the people should be allowed to give birth.
Yao Meixiong, Gu Baochang and other scholars told the "First Financial Daily" that the super-population of three or more children is less than one million each year. For the total amount of 1.374 billion people in the country, less than one-thousandth is a small number. It is worthwhile to discuss the need for social support payments for these people to spend huge administrative costs.
According to the population data of the National Bureau of Statistics, in the past many years, the vast majority of the super-population population is 2 children, and the proportion of the super-population population of three or more children is very low. An official from a province on the southeast coast revealed to reporters that more than three children in the province’s annual birth population accounted for only about 3% of the total birth population.
Wang Guangzhou, a population scholar at the Institute of Population and Labor Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told this reporter that according to statistics, the super-population population of three or more children accounts for about 5% of the total birth population. According to the province and the year, this figure is fluctuating. Less than four children, it is estimated that less than one percent of the total birth population.
Gu Baochang believes that the overall people's fertility will have undergone tremendous changes, and the willingness to give birth after 1980s and 1990s has a downward trend. Under such circumstances, a small number of family-bearing children just make up for the inadequacy of some families who are not giving birth or giving birth to a child. It is beneficial to the population structure as a whole and in the long run.
